The build-up to Australia’s current tour of South Africa has been persistently haunted by the ghosts of 2018. As both squads settle into Gqeberha ahead of the second Test, an uncanny sense of déjà vu hangs heavy over the series. Just as they did eight years ago, the Australian tourists have landed the opening blow, claiming a decisive 1-0 lead in Durban on the back of resilient middle-order batting and a relentless, disciplined fast-bowling masterclass.
In the opening encounter last week, Matt Renshaw proved to be the ultimate difference-maker. His extraordinary individual performance yielded 190 runs in the first innings, a gritty 82 in the second, and two crucial wickets that tilted the momentum firmly in the tourists’ favor. Meanwhile, veteran fast bowler Josh Hazlewood delivered a stellar fourth-innings haul—his career-best in that phase of a match—ensuring that South Africa’s defeat was significantly heavier than their opening loss back in 2018. Aiden Markram’s valiant lone hand of 75 in the final innings bore a striking resemblance to his own isolated heroics of 143 during a fruitless run chase in Durban nearly a decade ago.
However, where the historical parallels begin to diverge dramatically is in the host nation’s reaction to the opening-match defeat. Following their setback in 2018, the South African selectors made a solitary change for the second Test, bringing in Lungi Ngidi to replace Morne Morkel. This time around, a sweeping array of alterations is anticipated as the management frantically searches for a winning formula to keep their series hopes alive.
In a major tactical shift, Ryan Rickelton has been confirmed to take over the wicketkeeping duties, an appointment that strongly indicates Kyle Verreynne will be left out of the starting lineup. Furthermore, the decision to deploy two specialist spinners in Durban backfired significantly on a track that offered little assistance, an error the hosts are unlikely to repeat. The surface in Gqeberha is expected to feature a healthy covering of grass, and with wet weather threatening to influence proceedings throughout the week, a pace-heavy attack is all but guaranteed.
By comparison, Australia appear remarkably settled despite navigating a turbulent wave of selection dilemmas prior to the first Test. All-rounder Cameron Green remains unavailable due to an abdominal strain, meaning that Australia’s ongoing middle-order squeeze will be delayed until at least the third Test. By the time that fixture rolls around, the tourists could theoretically have the series wrapped up and taken another decisive step toward securing a place in the World Test Championship (WTC) final.
The only lingering question mark for the Australian camp is how their veteran pace trio will recover on a remarkably short turnaround. Having shouldered a heavy workload while bowling deep into the final sessions on a flat Durban pitch, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, and Josh Hazlewood face intense physical demands. While there is no immediate indication that any of the quicks will miss out in Gqeberha, the cumulative physical toll could become a major factor if Australia are forced to field first once again.
While the fixture represents a desperate, do-or-die scenario for the hosts in the context of the series, the match also carries massive ramifications for the broader WTC standings. Despite a substantial amount of cricket remaining in the current cycle, a defeat in Gqeberha would see South Africa slide down to fifth place on the table, trailing behind both Bangladesh and India. Conversely, a victory for Australia would edge them considerably closer to securing their third successive appearance in the championship decider.
Form Guide
South Africa: LWWWL (last five Tests, most recent first)
Australia: WWLWL
In the Spotlight: Ryan Rickelton and Travis Head
Ryan Rickelton enters the second Test under immense pressure following modest returns of 0 and 2 in the opening fixture at Durban. Ever since his magnificent 259 against Pakistan in January 2025, the left-hander has managed just a single half-century across his last 12 Test innings, averaging a meager 25.72 during that stretch. Compounding his struggles, all three of his single-digit scores in recent memory have come directly against Australia.
The response from South Africa’s hierarchy has been to thrust the keeping gloves upon him—a role he has never formally undertaken at Test level—and potentially drop him down the batting order. Rickelton has not batted lower than No. 3 since October 2024, a phase that marked the only time in his Test career he had batted lower than No. 5. Nevertheless, he possesses extensive experience fulfilling the dual role in white-ball cricket and first-class matches, having notched 12 of his 19 first-class centuries while donning the gloves. South Africa will be desperately hoping that Rickelton can maintain his glovework standards while rediscovering his batting touch, especially given that Verreynne has averaged just 20 over his last 13 Test innings without a single half-century.
On the other side of the ledger, Travis Head faces an entirely different kind of scrutiny. While his place in the Australian XI is not under threat from a selection standpoint, the curious tactical dilemma of how to extract the absolute best out of him remains an unsolved puzzle for the team’s leadership group. Given that Head is arguably Australia’s most destructive match-winner with the bat, the spotlight shines brightly on the captain, coach, and selectors alike.
Head is only three Tests removed from his most recent Test century, which was scored while opening the batting. However, a deeper statistical dive into his scoring patterns reveals that locking him in as a permanent opener across all scenarios may not be optimal. Head averages a modest 23.66 when opening the batting in the first innings of Tests, compared to a stellar 54.69 when anchoring the middle order at No. 5. Interestingly, in the second, third, and fourth innings of matches, those statistics completely invert; his average skyrockets to 57.86 when opening, while dropping to 33.46 at No. 5.
While Australia frequently preach the virtues of a flexible batting order, it remains to be seen whether the management will finally make a proactive, in-game tactical decision—such as deploying Head at No. 5 in the first innings and pushing him to open in subsequent innings. Furthermore, the stark contrast between his home and away records is another trend he would undoubtedly love to rectify. In Australia, Head averages a formidable 51.86, having scored 11 of his 12 Test centuries on home soil, whereas his overseas average sits at a far less imposing 31.62.
Team News: Rabada Returns, Australia Likely Unchanged
South Africa are bracing for a number of personnel changes as they attempt to rescue the series. Matthew Breetzke is widely expected to be called into the starting XI to open the batting, while Marques Ackerman stands a strong chance of making his Test debut at No. 5. Pace spearhead Kagiso Rabada is set to return from his hamstring injury, providing a massive boost to the bowling attack.
With South Africa expected to abandon their two-spinner strategy, all-rounder Senuran Muthusamy could come into immediate contention to play as the sole spinner ahead of incumbents Keshav Maharaj and Simon Harmer. Captain Temba Bavuma also indicated that Anrich Nortje is fit and ready to go again despite churning through 40 grueling overs in Durban—his first Test appearance in three years—meaning the tearaway fast bowler is likely to retain his place.
South Africa’s probable XI: 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Matthew Breetzke, 3 David Bedingham, 4 Temba Bavuma (capt), 5 Marques Ackerman, 6 Wiaan Mulder, 7 Ryan Rickelton (wk), 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Kagiso Rabada, 10 Keshav Maharaj/Simon Harmer/Senuran Muthusamy, 11 Anrich Nortje.
For Australia, captain Pat Cummins stated that he prefers to wait until the morning of the match before officially confirming his final eleven. However, the tourists are in a strong position to field an unchanged lineup, particularly since Cameron Green remains sidelined with his abdominal strain. Josh Inglis has fully recovered his fitness to play purely as a batsman, though he is unlikely to force his way into a settled batting order.
Youngster Cooper Connolly is also available if the team management decides they require an additional left-arm orthodox spin option within their top seven, though it remains unlikely that he would displace Beau Webster. Australia’s fast-bowling cartel has pulled up well from the rigors of Durban and appears primed to go again. Scott Boland is once more expected to run the drinks for the fourth consecutive Test, though discussions regarding the deployment of a four-man pace attack always linger in the background.
Australia’s probable XI: 1 Travis Head, 2 Nic Maddinson, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Matt Renshaw, 6 Alex Carey (wk), 7 Beau Webster, 8 Pat Cummins (capt), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Josh Hazlewood.
Pitch and Conditions: Rain Forecast, Well-Grassed Surface
The weather forecast presents a dicey outlook for the opening two days in Gqeberha, though meteorologists note that predicting the exact volume of precipitation and subsequent lost playing time remains difficult. Current forecasts indicate that conditions should clear up significantly from day three onward.
The venue has enjoyed a dry build-up following consistent rainfall throughout September. Although the main pitch appeared dry and ready for action during inspections three days out from the toss, it is expected to retain a healthy covering of grass. Despite the adjacent centre-wicket strips displaying notable pace, the match pitch itself is anticipated to play on the slower side as the Test progresses.
Looking ahead to the atmosphere and crowd engagement, captain Temba Bavuma expressed optimism regarding the local turnout in Gqeberha.
"Playing in PE, it’s one of the ones we look forward to. There’s a bit of a different atmosphere with the band. Where we stay close to the mall, there’s a lot more excitement from people. Hopefully that excitement translates to bums on the seats. It’s a Sunday, day one. I don’t know whether the weather is going to encourage people’s enthusiasm. Generally, PE is decently attended," Bavuma said.
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