As the cricketing world turns its attention toward the upcoming ODI tri-series, Pakistan and Sri Lanka find themselves on contrasting trajectories. With less than twelve months remaining before the 2027 World Cup kicks off on October 2, both nations are deep into the critical phase of squad refinement, tactical experimentation, and identifying winning combinations. For Pakistan, recent successes and the emergence of bright young talent provide genuine reasons for optimism. For Sri Lanka, the journey remains a turbulent search for stability as they attempt to reverse a dismal run of results that has defined their white-ball campaign through 2026.
The Big Picture
Sri Lanka enters this crucial encounter having secured a morale-boosting international victory within the past week. While that might sound like a modest benchmark, it carries immense significance given how difficult their 2026 season has been. Across a grueling calendar year, Sri Lanka has suffered 22 defeats compared to just 10 victories, leaving selectors and team management grappling with a lack of a settled squad. Newly appointed captain Kusal Mendis offered a glimpse of what his side is capable of in their recent outing, leading from the front with a blistering 87 not out off just 48 deliveries. That performance was complemented by an encouraging display from the seamers, offering a rare ray of hope.
However, that victory came in a dead rubber after Pakistan had already sewn up the preceding T20I series. Pakistan’s year has hardly been devoid of turbulence, but their overall success rate dwarfs Sri Lanka’s. Most recently, Pakistan triumphed 2-1 in an ODI series against Australia, a hard-fought contest where they potentially uncovered a cornerstone for their future in left-arm spinner and lower-order powerhouse Arafat Minhas. Minhas walked away with the Player of the Series award against Australia after bagging seven wickets at a remarkable average of 12.28.
His penetrative form has extended directly into the current tour, where he claimed five wickets across the three T20Is against Sri Lanka. Combined with stellar performances from spearhead Shaheen Afridi and legspinner Abrar Ahmed during the low-scoring Australian series, Pakistan’s bowling attack has established itself as a formidable weapon. As all three competing nations in the tri-series look ahead to the global tournament next year, Pakistan appears to have a clearer blueprint, though they still have positions and tactical strategies to trial before finalizing their World Cup roster.
Form Guide
When examining the recent trajectory of both squads across their last five completed matches, Pakistan holds a fluctuating yet superior momentum, registering a pattern of win, loss, win, loss, and win (WLWLW, most recent first). Sri Lanka, conversely, continues to battle consistency issues, recording a sequence of loss, win, loss, win, and loss (LWLWL) that underscores their ongoing struggles to chain performances together.
In the Spotlight: Babar Azam and Lahiru Udara
All eyes will be fixed on two players carrying vastly different expectations into the fixture: former Pakistan captain Babar Azam and veteran Sri Lankan batter Lahiru Udara.
During the series against Australia, Babar finished as Pakistan’s leading run-scorer, compiling scores of 40, 16, and 69 to maintain a healthy average of 41.66 across the three matches. While purists and fans might hesitate to declare it a full resurgence to the imperious peak of his golden years, it serves as a highly encouraging sign following a relatively modest 2025 campaign where he averaged 34 across 17 innings. Historically, Sri Lanka has been one of Babar’s favorite opponents; he has plundered four of his 20 ODI centuries against them, boasting an imposing average of 58.33. With the pitches in Rawalpindi traditionally offering favorable conditions for stroke-making, the stage is set for Babar to cement his form in the only international format he now plays regularly.
On the other side, Lahiru Udara arrives at this fixture with a point to prove. Many observers and analysts felt the 32-year-old was harshly treated by selectors when he was left entirely out of the squad for the preceding Test series, despite scoring a magnificent 188 against the West Indies just three Tests prior. However, with regular opener Pathum Nissanka sidelined due to an ongoing hamstring injury, Udara has thrust himself firmly back into ODI contention on the back of a solid T20I knock last week. At 32, Udara is acutely aware that his window of opportunity at the highest level is finite. With a World Cup looming on the horizon, there is arguably no better format for him to stake his claim and force a permanent selection.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Team selection will play a pivotal role as both camps weigh experience against emerging potential. With neither Sahibzada Farhan nor Maaz Sadaqat included in the ODI squad, Pakistan is expected to hand the opening responsibilities to Saim Ayub and Fakhar Zaman, anchoring a top and middle order featuring Hasan Nawaz, Babar Azam, Salman Ali Agha, and all-rounder Shadab Khan.
Pakistan’s probable playing XI features Saim Ayub and Fakhar Zaman at the top, followed by Hasan Nawaz, Babar Azam, Salman Ali Agha, and Shadab Khan. Ghazi Ghouri is expected to take the gloves, supported by Arafat Minhas, with a fearsome pace trio of captain Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf, and Naseem Shah rounding out the attack.
Sri Lanka, meanwhile, faces tough decisions regarding their batting combination and spin department. They are strongly considering throwing Avishka Fernando straight back into the starting XI to bolster the top order, given Kamil Mishara’s recent run of modest scores. In the spin department, Sri Lanka is expected to lean toward the mystery and economy of Maheesh Theekshana over young legspinner Sachindu Colombage.
Sri Lanka’s probable playing XI includes Lahiru Udara and Avishka Fernando opening the batting, followed by captain and wicketkeeper Kusal Mendis at three, Kamindu Mendis, and a choice between Sahan Arachchige and Pavan Rathnayake. Janith Liyanage and Dasun Shanaka add lower-middle-order power and experience alongside Dunith Wellalage, while the bowling unit is expected to feature Dushmantha Chameera, Eshan Malinga, Maheesh Theekshana, and Asitha Fernando.
Pitch and Conditions
Conditions in Rawalpindi traditionally favor the batsmen, characterized by true surfaces that encourage fluent stroke-play. Coupled with typically short boundaries at the venue, bowlers will have little margin for error, and high-scoring encounters are frequently on the cards if batters apply themselves early on. Weather forecasts for the matchday predict fine conditions with mild temperatures hovering comfortably in the mid-to-low 20s Celsius, ensuring an uninterrupted and pleasant day of international cricket for players and spectators alike.
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